A trend forecaster uses both rigorous research methods and intuition to mine potential emerging trends. A trend is a change in the societal direction over time. Trend drivers are the series of underlying causes and forces that shift new developments in a particular direction. They are what influence and trigger the change. By studying the trend drivers in multiple local and global contexts, a trend forecaster can consider how they will influence lifestyles and ultimately the offering of products and services in the marketplace.

Trend drivers are not mutually exclusive; all are interwoven with complex cause-and-effect relationships. The coalescence of trend drivers in common directions in global contexts form the long-term megatrends, called “macro trends” in other resources. Megatrends, in turn, affect large numbers of industries and markets. They can be thought of as a macro umbrella that governs smaller, short-term trends in different markets (Figure 1).

Understanding megatrends, and interpreting how they will create short-term trends in specific industries and markets, requires a thorough assessment of the trend drivers embedded in local and global contexts. In predicting future long-term megatrends and analyzing today’s short-term trends, one needs a systematic perspective to analyze, interpret, and understand the trend drivers. In this chapter, we discuss six trend driver categories that inform trend research and forecasting: 1) socio-cultural, 2) economic and politic, 3) science and technology, 4) environment, 5) social psychology, 6) unexpected events.

Mega Trends and Their Influence

Forecasters and futurists who focus on change are a good source of information on the megatrends setting the direction for change. In the late 1980s, for example, Faith Popcorn, a globally renowned futurist and trend forecaster, predicted a megatrend that she called “cocooning,” a direction of change towards “the need to protect oneself from the harsh, unpredictable realities of the outside world.” It continues as an influential megatrend today (Popcorn, 2020).

This megatrend continues to be driven by trend drivers embedded in local and global contexts. The most significant—the Covid-19 pandemic, which in 2020 made stay-at-home life the new normal—falls under unexpected events. From a socio-cultural point of view, we might look at the overstimulation and exhaustion caused by technology in our daily home and work lives, and the desire for safety, comfort, and privacy. From the perspective of global economics and politics, we can examine the rise of nationalism globally, with developments like Brexit (the British exit from the European Union), or the trade tariffs between the U.S. and China, referring to the idea of cocooning or turning inwards at the global scale. Developments in science and technology also drive this megatrend, as cable TV and the internet bring entertainment into homes, mobile applications allow users to order food on demand, and social media platforms provide new ways of socializing and working from home. Environmental influences such as air pollution, food safety, and unsustainable farming practices affect how individuals seek comfort and security in their everyday lives through, for example, organic backyard/roof farming and beekeeping. And psychological influences driving this megatrend might include anxiety related to busy lives and overstimulation by technology.

We can continue to reflect on the influences of the cocooning megatrend in specific industries and what they mean for designers. In the fashion industry, comfortable clothing and sportswear have been on the rise as people spend more time in their homes. The pandemic also increased the need for protective clothing. Face masks became a commodity, with different styles, colors, and cuts sold in fashion retail stores. Networked smart-home technologies have become mainstream, including everything from security systems to vacuum robots. And specialized home exercise equipment, cooking instruments, and new online-work/study applications started to fill the marketplace.

Interpreting Trend Drivers

Discovering trend drivers and interpreting them are not easy tasks, and require constant and conscious research efforts. Andrew and Gaia Grant of The Innovation Race discuss the psychological block of “concept blindness,” which causes us to view and interpret the world in the way we expect to see and therefore miss the details. It is crucial that a trend forecaster overcome the concept blindness our brains are hardwired to develop, and avoid stereotyping and jumping to conclusions.

Amy Webb (2016), a technology futurist, created a system for detecting early patterns so as to interpret trend drivers. She defines a six-step process to monitor what’s happening in the present and determine how it relates to the future:

1. Study the fringe. This could include the use of the different research methods described in the “Toolkit for Research” to harness information from the fringes of a society.
2. Uncover hidden patterns by categorizing information using the lens of contradictions, inflections, practices, hacks, extremes, and rarities (or what the author calls the CIPHER). Contradictions refer to oxymorons—things that fail or succeed simultaneously even though they should be progressing in opposite directions. Inflections are sudden changes, such as unanticipated events, that cause innovation to accelerate. Practices to look for are those that threaten the established orthodoxy. Hacks involve the unintended use or redesign of something that make it become more useful. Extremes refer to research efforts into areas no one ever attempted before. Finally, rarities are very unusual movements, objects, or practices that turn into a solution for a fundamental user need.
3. Ask questions to determine whether a pattern really is a trend. Challenge potential assumptions, and create counter arguments by asking questions such as: What does the pattern mean? How does it impact society? How does it impact industries? Work to validate the findings.
4. Calculate the timing of the likely impact of the trend driver (ETA) and determine what the trend could be in the near term (1–5 year), mid-range (5–10 years), long-range (10–20 years), longer range (20–30 years), or even the distant future (more than 30 years).
5. Develop potential scenarios and accompanying strategies related to the impact of the trend driver at the expected ETA.
6. Pressure test the future. Revisit the scenarios created in the previous stage, and challenge them with questions such as “what if the scenario and strategy taken in response to a trend driver is the wrong one?”pressure testing the future or in other words revisiting the scenarios created in the previous stage and challenging them with questions such as what if the scenario and strategy taken in response to a trend driver is the wrong one.

Sociocultural Trend Drivers

At the sociocultural level, trend divers relate to the combination of social and cultural factors affecting different local and global human populations. While variations exist between different populations based on differences in geographical, political, economic, or religious contexts, major trend drivers at the sociocultural level do not trigger entirely disparate results. In today’s very connected global environment, with freely flowing information, it is possible to detect trend drivers in one geography and then observe similar shifts and changes in multiple countries.

Through close readings of the projections of trend forecasters and futurists, we determined that the changing demographics of the world’s population is an important trend driver at the socio-cultural level. It is well-known that the world population is getting older as a result of higher life expectancy and low fertility rates. For the first time in history, the number of people older than 64 has surpassed the number of children under 5. What does this major shift indicate for humanity, for a specific country, or for a specific industry?

Parallel to the aging of the population, other demographic changes are taking place. More people, for example, are living in urban cities. In the 1950s, only 30% of the world’s population lived in a city. By 2050, this number will exceed 70% (Liang, 2018). Gen Z’ers (those born after 1996) are becoming the majority in the workforce. Digital natives who have never experienced life without the internet, members of this generation will be making the decisions and policies that affect health and well-being of the older generations.

Demographic changes like these could indicate that people today are likely to have fewer children, and less likely to live with and care for older family members. We may see increased costs, such as additional taxes on members of the younger generation to help sustain elderly care. In the short term, this trend driver translates into product and technology trends such as location trackers and fall detection devices, and functional products for daily life needs like easy-don/doff clothing. In the long term, we may expect to see major innovations in robotics and artificial intelligence for smart independent living for the elderly.

Economic and Political Trend Drivers

Economic and political shifts can also drive trends. Western economic dominance is currently shifting towards a global multipolar system, with rising economies in countries like China and India. Since no trend driver exists in a vacuum, the demographic changes we discussed above relate directly to economic and political trend driver. While China also faces the challenges of an aging population, it still holds the advantage of being one of the largest populations, with a huge market for any product. For instance, China has more than 900 million internet users, making it an extremely profitable market for any internet-related product (Liang, 2018). In addition, the increase in the quality of education—with China ranking first in PISA test rankings for math, science, and reading in 2018 (Liang, 2018)—and the full attention of parents and grandparents on the single child (due to China’s long-lasting one-child policy), is leading to a larger talent pool, fueling the country’s economic development and its switch from low-cost manufacturing capabilities to capabilities in innovation.

What does this economic trend driver indicate to a trend forecaster and to a designer? Will Chinese users become more satisfied with local sources? Will international companies rethink their approaches and speed up local innovation efforts? We see more and more western companies developing and marketing products for the Chinese market. The increased spending power of families and their desire to provide the best for their children have fueled a child-themed trend, making China a very attractive market for products ranging from toys to luxury children’s wear.

Political environments and government policies can influence trends. There are many examples of governing powers regulating clothing fashions through sumptuary laws or wars, driving disruptive material and product innovations. In the 1930s, for example, U.S. access to silk was in jeopardy as a result of political tensions with Japan. This led to the invention of nylon, which offered a large variety of potential uses, from clothing and toothbrushes to military products. While nylon was not intended for use in stockings—a market worth an estimated $70 million for Japan silk producers—nylon stockings were increasingly popular as hemlines continued to rise.

Science and Technology as Trend Drivers

Because advances in science and technology go hand-in-hand in shaping the future, they are important trend drivers. In recent decades, the internet has been one of the most significant technological paradigm shifts, changing lives at all levels—from the way we communicate, shop, and travel to the ways in which we take care of our health. Digital technology, artificial intelligence (AI), and material science are often described as the grand scheme trend drivers by futurists. Supported by the availability of big data and the possibilities of machine learning, AI is expected to become ever more important for the fashion industry, from design to retailing. Europe-based online fashion retailer Zalando (zalando.com), for example, harnesses machine learning in its “Algorithmic Fashion Companion,” which identifies ensemble recommendations based on users’ personal preferences. And developments in material technology have led to smart textiles capable of sensing vital signs. While the range of smart clothing and wearable technology products is limited as of 2020, we can expect different forms of wearable or body-embedded (e.g., smart tattoos) technology, especially in applications related to healthcare and well-being.

Environmental Trend Drivers

Environmental changes are a significant trend driver. Upcycling old clothing, for example, is a DIY user trend arising in response to the harmful impacts of fashion on the environment. It has also been adopted by designers and in curriculums of educational institutions of fashion as an alternative design method. Companies like Patagonia offer repair services for their products, while H&M and The North Face provide clothing recycling.

In today’s context, global warming and natural resource scarcity are two central issues shaping industry and people’s lives. Let’s discuss some examples of the current implications and potential future impacts of these environmental trend drivers for design.

The fashion industry relies heavily on water, from the production of fibers to the care of clothing. Freshwater reserves are diminishing, in part because of growing demand for the raw materials for textiles such as cotton. In addition, man-made synthetic textiles have a huge impact on water resources, with plastic microfibers released from clothes every time we wash them. Microplastics are tiny pieces of plastic, less than 5 mm in length. Microfibers are a type of microplastic released when we wash synthetic clothing made from plastic such as polyester and acrylic. These microplastics pollute the oceans and end up in the food chain of different species. In response, household appliance companies have started developing microplastic filters for washing machines, and campaigners in the U.K. are asking the government to require that all new washing machines are fitted with these filters.

The recent rise of biodesign practices, and new research into bio materials, are addressing the environmental impact of fashion. Biodesign incorporates biological systems such as yeast or bacteria, or bioplastics made from chitosan or other biodegradable materials technologies, into the creation of products. Bolt Threads, for example, located in California, defines itself as a material solutions company. It offers numerous biomaterial technology such as Mylo, a leather alternative grown from mycelium, the branching underground structure of mushrooms, and Microsilk, a fiber made of fermented proteins inspired by the proteins spun by spiders. New biomaterials and products are also being used in design fields beyond fashion. Researchers at Technical University Delft (NL) and at the company Basilisk Concrete have developed self-healing concrete using bacteria mixed into the mortar; the bacteria multiply and produce calcium carbonate, filling the cracks when it comes to contact with oxygen and water. With applications of biodesign replicating in different industries in response to the growing environmental crisis, there are many possibilities for detecting future trends.

Unexpected Events as Trend Drivers

While it is possible to research past and current patterns to project as future trends, unexpected events—such as natural disasters, pandemics, terrorist attacks, or wars—can also create immediate pattern changes that become permanent in many aspects of life. Since 2019, we have been experiencing how a global pandemic can drastically disrupt well-established patterns in our daily lives, and create new trends. Everything from travel and retailing to work and education changed in ways that were beyond imagination. Protective face coverings became a part of daily regular attire. Face masks of different styles quickly became fashionable merchandise, available from brands such as GAP and Nike. Spending preferences shifted towards home entertainment, outdoor activities, and gear that allow socially distanced entertainment. Especially for the fashion industry, traditional shopping malls and fashion retail stores were challenged by online shopping as well as by shifts in consumption patterns in clothing. Traditional elements of education and work have been replaced by online options, leading to questioning the status quo. From the perspective of a trend forecaster, these changes offer many possibilities for to identify major trends in different industries during and after the global pandemic.

Socio-Psychological Trend Drivers

Social psychology is about cognition, emotions, and behaviors in social contexts; all of these can be drivers for new major trends. Consider the overwhelming amount of information to which individuals are exposed. In the entire period between the beginning of civilization and 2003, humans created five exabytes of data; currently, we create the same amount of data every two days (Bosker, 2013). The proliferation of choices in products and services, the always-on digital experiences provided by smart devices and wearables, and increasing expectations of work productivity are increasing the amount of stress for people already short on time. Research evidence shows, for example, that choice overload— from milk varieties in a grocery store to mobile phones to clothing options—is creating mental clutter. The pressure that accompanies information and product overload is a good example of a psychological trend driver that points to megatrends towards decluttering, streamlining, and simplifying lives.

To predict future trends, it is important to thoroughly analyze potential drivers, including counter-trends and unexpected results. A counter-trend is a trend that is in response or opposition to another trend. According to Pelc (1999), counter-trends in the embryonic state—reactive tendencies oriented in the direction opposite to the well-known and fully identified trends—can lead to future major trends. Localism, for instance, can be regarded as the counter-trend of well-established globalism.

Let’s revisit one of the examples of scientific and technological trend drivers. What would be the consequences of wearables that gather health-related data? Would such technological developments create strong counter-trends? For instance, parallel to the scientific and technological developments in healthcare and well-being, data show that spending also skyrocketed in alternative healthcare that uses different forms of art, massage, or homeopathy.

References

Bosker, B. (2013). Siri rising: The inside story of Siri’s origins—and why she could overshadow the iPhone. Huffington Post.

Grant, A., & Grant, G. (2016). The innovation race: How to change a culture to change the game. John Wiley & Sons.

Liang, J. (2018). The demographics of innovation: Why demographics is a key to the innovation race. John Wiley & Sons.

Pelc, K. I. (1999). Counter-trend and potential trend conversions in the early twenty-first century. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 62(1–2), 135–137.

Popcorn, F. (2020). Welcome to 2030: Come cocoon with me. Retrieved from https://faithpopcorn.com/trendblog/articles/post/welcome-to-2030/

Webb, A. (2016). The signals are talking: Why today’s fringe is tomorrow’s mainstream. PublicAffairs.