Trend forecasting today is about alignment of the industry with the user’s needs and desires. The forecaster must observe and interpret the broad directions of change within the culture and the influence of these trends on their user. Forecasting involves research and interpretation of what is acceptable and changing, or what could change, in the products offered, and finding ways to communicate those observed trends to the targeted market.

Trend Forecasting as Practice

Trend forecasting as a practice has existed for just over a century. Originating in the U.S. and France, the industry began with people tracking and forecasting colors and materials. The first color forecasts were created in 1915 to help the industry focus on what was likely to appeal to users, thus limiting markdowns and waste in the industry. These first forecasts, however, essentially dictated what colors and textiles were produced, which gave users limited choices.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the focus of trend forecasts shifted from narrowing user choices to presenting a broadened trend report to inspire new directions and design ideas for products. Seasonal trend reports became tactile and colorful, and were meant to respond to the needs of the user (Holland & Jones, 2017).  Forecasters who rose to importance included Li Edelkoort (Trend Union), Nelly Rodi of Paris, David Wolfe of New York (Doneger Group), and Faith Popcorn (BrainReserve). In 1998, the online service called the Worth Global Style Network (WGSN) broadened the scope of the industry once again. Today, the expanded forecast industry includes multiple lifestyle categories and more user-centered trends that examine the culture of entertainment, food technology, and product design.

The Structure of the Fashion System

The trend forecasting industry is part of the complex structure of the fashion system. Payne (2021) simplifies the system by dividing its structure into three essential and inter-related contexts: industry, culture, and change. In this course, we focus primarily on change, but it is crucial to understand how these contexts function together.

1. The context of industry includes designers, manufacturers, and everyone involved in the designed object and its material production and distribution. Broadly speaking, the industry is a means to shape and to make, using labor and technology to transform raw materials into clothing and bring that clothing to people. Trend forecasters can become involved in industry messaging with such current issues as sustainability, biodegradable products, and use of deadstock.

Offerings in the marketplace can be aimed at cultural groups in a variety of ways, such as the ways in which categories are used to market products. Style categories can differ according to size (e.g., plus size, or big and tall); to styles that span many size ranges (e.g., athleisure, formal, or professional clothing); or to subcultural groups such as campers who spend vacations outdoors, or rappers who are inclined to focus on rhythm and performance. As outdated categories fade in importance and meaning, new ones appear, such as the category called “androgynous.” How these marketing categories come about involves the context of culture.

2. The context of culture involves symbolic meanings in fashioning the self within a community with customs of time and place, and includes the symbolic attributes of clothing and appearance in making meaning within one’s culture. such practices are in continual motion as cultures and individuals ascribe and re-ascribe meanings to what we wear.

Meaning and expectations related to how a woman looks differ, for example, are rooted in the generation into which the woman was born. Entwistle (2000) notes that each generation is born into a certain set of moral codes and patterns of dressing that are influential for life. Twigg (2013) defines “age ordering” as the systematic patterning of cultural expression according to an ordered and hierarchically arranged concept of age that operates across the life course. Being correctly dressed for your generation thus involves conforming to rules of dressing and conventions of one’s upbringing experiences within a historical and cultural context.

Patterns occur in the structured expectations related to age, and norms can arise both for what is expected and what is considered appropriate. Twigg (2013) believes that age has come to operate as a diffusional structure within the fashion system (p. 270). She outlines expected patterns of dressing for women age 55 and older, which include suggestions for age-related styling as a general covering up and toning down of one’s sexuality. Twigg believes that the media’s message is that older people no longer need to or even want to dress distinctively. Stereotypes for the 55+ woman include the “mother of the bride” look, an outfit consisting of an elaborate dress, coat or jacket, and hat, or the “sweet old lady” pattern of dressing characterized by floral patterns, frills, high necks, and long sleeves.

In contrast, people such as Iris Apfel (2018), a leader in the fight against ageism, resist the notion that age requires an expected pattern of dressing. Apfel believes in dressing for a personal style and for who you are, and is unapologetic about her cause. She focuses on combining clothing, jewelry, and eyewear in an unexpected and unusual head-to-toe appearance. As she delights in creating her individual style, Apfel has gained attention for defying cultural stereotypes for the 55+ woman. Her style was featured in a 2005 exhibition at the Costume Institute at The Metropolitan Museum of Art.

Culture’s interaction with the industry may take on meaning in several ways. Sometimes the industry designs and produces a category of styles because of their emergence within the culture. Punk style, for example, became popular as a category of dressing in the late 20th century, signaling resistance to cultural norms. The industry recognized the category after the punk subculture had created the meaning by uniquely combining existing products, such as Doc Marten boots. These products were readily available for purchase or could be easily modified by this emerging subcultural group. The industry introduced the category not to suggest how punks should look in their dressing styles; but because meaning had already been created by the subculture.

Above all, then, the context of culture is the systematic encryption, transmission, and interpretation of social meaning. Fashion is the vehicle that transports cultural information to its destination—the consumer and user (Payne 2021).

3. The context of change includes the ways in which styles, practices, or ideas are introduced, gain popularity, and then fade over time. The continual striving for a new direction in what is considered modern or up-to-date involves change and impermanence. Along with clothing and appearances, this impermanence occurs in many other areas, such as furniture, food, architecture, television programming, child raising, and lifestyles.

The general direction in which something is changing is a trend. Products and appearances are always changing, but the rate of change varies; the trend may spread and diffuse through a community quickly, or do so slowly over several years. In Western cultures, fast-fashion products have been changing ever more quickly (Payne 2021).

A product that changes quickly is often spread via memes, defined as a particular and catchy idea or image that spreads through a community. A meme may be spread within a subgroup or entire community, and usually involves something that attracts attention easily, like a catchy musical tune or slogan. In clothing, a meme is easily recognized and usually visibly apparent, such as the “cold shoulder,” a rounded shape cut out at the shoulder of women’s and then children’s dresses and tops. This meme has since spread to include similar cutouts over body parts.

Change in dressing practices happen in all cultures and historic periods. The traditional dress worn in Korea, “hanbok,” though appearing to the outsider as a recognizable but somewhat static form, changes in a recognizable way for the Korean insider every 3–5 years (DeLong & Geum, 2004). The amount and length of time for such change to take place can vary, but changes in dressing practice must occur within a person’s lifetime to be perceived (Roach 1980); otherwise, there is no trend because no change is recognized.

Interactions within the Trend Industry

Trend forecasting involves the need to consider interactions that work together to limit the risk involved in challenging the status quo of the user. You must be attuned to change, which can occur in any part of the system. In the 21st century, for example, lifestyle is evolving in the U.S. We no longer live in spatially closed communities where most who live there know everyone in the community. We are increasingly mobile, and it is not unusual to move several times within a lifetime. Neighborhoods are increasingly diverse, and the individual feels more autonomy—freer to express beliefs and values with others who are not spatially close. This autonomy means that individuals can have the freedom to design how they want to appear and how they want to live as significant aspects of well-being.

Vinken (2005) believes that, in the 21st century, designers are no longer in charge of our unified appearance in the products they design. We increasingly look to the designer for product ideas, but not for head-to-toe ensembles. The increase in the sale of separates means the user oversees the product mix-and-match for a total effect. Manzini (2019) believes that, in this fluid world, we all make design choices, which potentially means that everybody is a designer. But not everyone is interested in spending the time to design a look, and some appreciate the suggestions of an expert. Companies such as Stitch Fix, for instance, have created a business out of narrowing the choices users must make. Nordstrom and other companies are offering access to a personal shopper and mini videos to suggest how to coordinate an ensemble with their products.

Lantz (2016) observes that the speed at which change occurs in the industry makes it difficult to know what is considered up-to-date. Wide or narrow silhouettes, bold or muted colors—all can be found, and any centralized story continues to blur. These multiple versions of what is considered up-to-date can be confusing, and consumers/users may decide to ignore forecasts and explore more personal styles through creatively combining what is available in the marketplace with what is already in their wardrobe. This can involve multiple possible relationships for the individual within the current milieu, such as the physical coloring, body shape, and size of the user. Body surfaces themselves expand creative possibilities, with quick changes allowing greater freedom in self-expression in terms of body modification—e.g., body tattoos arranged effectively and artistically to accompany an ensemble of clothing.

Ideas are understood through basic language that cycles through the fashion system—language that is understood because it is repetitive and familiar. Style terminology includes language basics: garments come in predetermined shapes and forms that are understood in terms of how they function on the body for comfort, mobility, and so on. Styles can be reinterpreted and push the limits, but remain unpopular if mobility is impeded too much. Jumpsuits for females, though popping up frequently on designer catwalks, fall into this category because they are less functional for women’s anatomy. Trousers that extend beyond the foot to pool on the floor would not be expected to be adopted broadly, as walking would be difficult.

Product design includes coordination of colors, lines, shapes, and proportions, all existing as part of the material object itself. We often think about the design process as involving all that goes into creation of this physical product. But as we think about the fashion system and design, we should also consider elements that, while immaterial and not part of the physical product, still greatly influence fashion. The industry must find ways to use the culture and what it offers in the process of design. These immaterial aspects of the design process include consideration of stories, such as trend and brand stories (Payne 2021).

The trend story is an expression of fashion as change, and interpretation is often necessary for the user. Trend stories are important to the trend forecast. They shape diffuse ideas about societal mood and preferences into a focused narrative that can be summed up in a few words and evocative images related to the consumer in the target market. And they place place a narrative and purpose around a cultural phenomenon that is changing, and seek to predict fashion’s near-term future (Payne 2021). A trend story will succeed, however, only if it captures what the user is thinking and feeling and motivates that user toward a change in purchase behavior.

Forecasters seek to predict future trends in taste by analyzing the existing direction of trends in design, lifestyle, and consumer behavior, and extrapolating these into future-looking stories. Forecasting predicts upcoming seasonal colors, textiles and other materials, and garment styles. As such, trend forecasting is generative—design stories are generated that are compatible and integral to a range of fashion processes. They are useful because they focus the information and data to be received by the user. But they are also reactive, in that forecasts react to shifts in taste, the zeitgeist, and data gathered from algorithms worldwide.

Stories can originate on and trickle up from the street, or trickle down from the catwalk. They are assembled by futurists, forecasters, and trend spotters. Futurists examine overarching trends and communicate through scenarios that help us imagine what the future could be like. Trend forecasters create trend books, presentations, and trade shows meant for communication with designers and manufacturers. Services such as WGSN create trend reports for many products such as clothing, textiles, and homewares; WGSN forecasts are available for a subscription fee and communicated through their website. Large companies often hire their own trend forecaster to help interpret and focus their product for their user. And trend spotters are an emerging group gaining influence by communicating through social media.

Trend forecasting and its resulting trend stories aim to supply consumers with the products they desire, playing an important part as an expression of change. They also aim “to reduce the risk of unsold stock for companies” (Payne 2021, p.131).

The brand story is how a fashion brand differentiates its product offering from other similar products. With so many similar products in the marketplace, the brand story is carefully constructed. The intention is to present the consumer with a means of expressing personal preferences, individual tastes, or prevailing style trends. A brand story that emphasizes classic shapes, durability, and functionality will be slower to change, while a brand story for fast fashion will emphasize those variations that are changing the product.

Brand stories must be factored into the industry’s communication with the consumer/user, and used in the marketplace to tie together a company’s different products. Brand stories are designed to keep the user emotionally connected to the brand as a whole rather than to a single product, and answer the question of how the brand differs from its competitors. This difference could relate to its consumer/ user, to design differences and their origins, or to an association with subcultural groups. Ralph Lauren, for example, has designed the USA identity for Olympic athletes for years. This identity is then diffused to other cultural groups as a part of his brand.

Interaction Summarized

Though complex, the fashion system can be better understood when its three contexts are examined separately: the industry, the culture, and fashion as change. Together, these facets of the system form an analytic framework, and it is necessary to understand the interconnection of all three. For our purposes in trend forecasting, our focus is primarily on change and how it intertwines with culture and industry.

As a forecaster, you need to learn how to think outside of the box. Users have needs, and those needs can translate to changes in fashion trends or style tropes. Increasingly, the assumptions that accompany design must be questioned. For example, does the design of fake pockets for an adult, slightly overweight woman who wants to look slim over the hip carry over to the design of clothing for children?

An interesting news story illustrates the interconnection of industry within the fashion system and the influence of one user. A 7-year-old recognized the power of her persuasive voice when she learned how to write a letter. She wrote to Old Navy, requesting that the retailer create jeans with real pockets (Trent 2021):

Dear Old Navy. I do not like that the front pockets of the girls’ jeans are fake. I want front pockets because I want to put my hands in them. I also would like to put things in them. Would you consider making girls jeans with front pockets that are not fake. Thank you for reading my request.

One trend direction in the fashion industry involves listening to the young consumer’s voice, expressing appreciation for it, and acting upon it. Old Navy did just that; they responded by sending this 7-year-old four pairs of jeans and jean shorts with real pockets, along with a letter saying “Thank you so much for taking the time to write us about pockets on girl’s jeans. The Old Navy kids product team appreciate your information. It’s great feedback for us as we develop new product.”

History is often taught with attention to changes in appearance, which usually happen over the span of a decade. Changes in dressing practices relate to replacing an old product with a new one over time. How swiftly this occurs is important to note. Athletic shoes or sneakers, for instance, have been a pervasive product category in Western culture, worn for casual or sporting functions. Their style can be long-term, involving classics, or short-term, involving fads. Some athletic shoes are static in appearance because they are valued as a classic staple. Consider how long the sneaker has been popular, especially the Converse athletic shoe, which continues to be valued by certain groups of teenagers and has been resuscitated by the current generation; this style of footwear has not gone out of fashion. Change can also happen quickly, however, like in the case of Vans or custom painted versions.

Change can happen at different speeds within one product category. And while a product may be a constant in terms of a market category, its details may change frequently. A desirable sneaker may be altered in its details of lacing, color, or shape. The current shoe may be brightly colored or stark white, and often is further distinguished by its sole, lacings or other closures, and logos.

Fashion change can range from systematic—significantly altering the product, to incidental—not changing the product much at all (Payne 2021). The hi-lo hemline popular several years ago is an example of a systematic change; it would have been difficult for the consumer who desired this irregular hemline to create it from what was already in a wardrobe of short skirts. A change in the way baseball caps are worn—with the bill sideways, perhaps, or to the back—is an example of an incidental change. This change may not alter the product, but the user’s perception of that product may be refreshed. All such changes are important for the trend forecaster to note.

Trend Forecaster Characteristics

By now you realize that forecasting trends is not a simple process, and that engaging in trend forecasting means recognizing what it takes to become successful. Characteristics of a successful trend researcher include the following (Dragt, 2017 p.25):

Curious: You are inquisitive and always wonder about the “why” of things happening around you. You ask a lot of questions.

Holistic: You look at the bigger picture and how it fits the details. You can zoom in and zoom out during your research. You consider that the whole is more than the sum of parts and don’t get stuck in details.

Interdisciplinary: You can think and work across boundaries, combining knowledge from different fields and domains.

Analytic: You examine signs of change in a careful and objective way.

Relational: You seek to identify the relationship of data to causes and key factors behind shifts in direction, and arrange and organize information into categories.

Non-judgmental: You are unbiased about opinions and behaviors different from your own. You think “that’s interesting,” rather than “that’s not right!”

Creative: You see connections between snippets of information that at first seem unrelated, and can interrelate these snippets into imaginative trend stories.

Persistent: You are not satisfied until you dive deep into the information and process it.

Visual: You have a flair for the visual and you don’t hesitate to bring visual aids and pictures into your findings.

Storyteller: You can translate and communicate your trend story for your audience by combining words and visuals in understandable language to create a coherent and inspiring storyline.

These characteristics can be strengthened through practice.

References

Apfel, I. (2018). Iris Apfel: Accidental icon. Harper Collins.

DeLong, M. & K. Geum. (2004). Korean dress & adornment, in Encyclopedia of clothing and fashion. Charles Scribner’s Sons Reference Books, edited by Valerie Steele, 2, 313–318.

Dragt, E. (2017). How to research trends: Move beyond trend watching to kickstart innovation. BIS publishers.

Entwistle, J. (2009). The aesthetic economy of fashion: Markets and value in clothing and modelling. Berg.

Entwistle, J. (2000). The fashioned body: Fashion, dress, and modern social theory. Polity Press.

Fletcher, K. & Grose, L. (2012). Fashion & sustainability : Design for change. Laurence King Publishers.

Holland G. & R. Jones. (2017). Fashion trend forecasting. Laurence King Publishing.

Lantz J. (2016). The trendmakers. Bloomsbury Press.

Manzini, E. (2019). Politics of the everyday. Bloomsbury.

Payne, A. (2021). Designing fashion’s future. Bloomsbury.

Popcorn, F. (1992). The Popcorn Report: On the future of your company, your world and your life.  HarperCollins.

Roach, M.E., Musa, K.E., & Hollander, A. (1998). New perspectives on the history of western dress. NutriGuides.

Shedroff, N. (2009). Design is the problem: The future of design must be sustainable. Rosenfeld Media.

Trent, R., April 5, 2021. Old Navy responds to first-grader who asked for jeans with real pockets. CNN.

Twigg, J. (2013). Fashion and age: Dress, the body and later life. Bloomsbury Academic.

Vinken, B. (2005). Fashion zeitgeist, trends and cycles in the fashion system. Berg.

Note:  Illustrations in this chapter are by Rachel Bodine.