To forecast trends for a marketplace that includes fluctuating tastes and fashions, you will need to develop a sharp eye, a curiosity for detecting changes in direction of the society, and a willingness to examine how these changes are influencing your target market. Forecasts include big-picture thinking as well as attention to what product categories are trending and to a product and its function.

This chapter is about the processes of recognizing trends and trend relationships. The aim is to increase understanding of the role of trend patterns in the way we organize or coordinate products and what factors to consider in marketing to your user.

The Innovative Product? How is it Trending?

When you look at products that are trending, think about differences in how products have influenced changes in behavior. Two contrasting examples are the smartphone and the T-shirt. Smartphones have a relatively short history, but they have changed the ways in which we interact with others and have influenced behavior globally. We are motivated to buy a smartphone because of its influence in messaging others and in communication generally. Smartphones are an innovation which could be considered revolutionary, with a wide impact in a relatively short time. The T-shirt, on the other hand, could be described as evolutionary, with changes in appearance and use occurring over an entire century. The T-shirt began as underwear in the early 20th century when the U.S. Navy began issuing standard undershirts in white cotton to help keep crew members warm. By the middle of the century, it had transitioned from undergarment to general-use casual outerwear, and in 21st century, the T-shirt continues as a strong product offering.

To extend the impact of both the smartphone and T-shirt as trends, both have been modified. The smartphone may continue to extend its impact with new technological advances that include more functions. You might ask: what other modifications could be added to extend the smartphone’s impact? Details of shape or convenience, perhaps? What other products could accompany the smartphone? Think of protective cases that have become tools of personalization, or matching accessories or clothing. While the t-shirt is now worn by all ages of men, women, and children, it has used essentially the same layout for the last 100 years, named for its T-shape to fit the torso and sleeves to accommodate the arms. But today, modification of the T-shirt continues: the product is altered by introducing colors, patterns, and messaging details. Surfaces are printed with messages about how we think and feel. Other changes have had an impact as well, such as the way in which the T-shirt is combined within a head-to-toe ensemble, or with other products like a blazer.  A significant trend pattern for the T-shirt is relates to how it is worn and how it is combined with other product categories.

In observing such trend patterns, you need to pay attention first to the product and its function, then to how product categories are trending in combination.

Coordinating a Look

Whether a product is sold singly or in combination with other products, product relationships are involved. To achieve a coordinated look, these product relationships must ultimately be considered on the body—including all that is placed on the body and modifying it. These relationships of products with one another and as they relate to the body can result in a coordinated effect that is an attraction in the marketing story.

Products need to be considered both from the standpoint of design and their visual effect. Designers are continually pushing the edges of user acceptance, and the trend forecast must balance between perceived chaos and order. Users will then assign meaning to products based upon their visual effects. We return to the three levels of processing meaning described by Norman: visceral, behavioral, and reflective. The trend forecaster is wise to become aware of the meaning associations trending within a society. Pets, for example, have long been a trigger for positive emotional associations, especially soft and furry pets. But with the pandemic, many more families have been buying pets, and trend forecasters have found it useful to encourage this emotional connection by including a pet in marketing a look. In addition, many pet clothing lines have emerged for sale.

Product Categories & User Expectations

As a trend forecaster, be on the lookout for how product categories, and the ways in which they function and are worn, can appear and reappear in the marketplace. Some product categories are style tropes, “classics” that have stood the test of time for their users and don’t change much from season to season. Users expect such a product to have some familiar and unchanging characteristics. The trench coat, as mentioned before, is a classic product that has not changed much over time; it has continued to be recognized and have value in the marketplace. Other product categories have changed in function and appearance over the past century. The tuxedo, for instance, became popular in the late 19th century as a more casual category of formal wear. Today it is considered an ultra-formal two-piece suit worn to weddings and proms, and it continues to be modified; what was originally only black now comes in vibrant colors that often are created to match with the event. Such examples need to be noticed not only for their relevancy and staying power, but for what has changed. They must be understood over time, and a look backward can be useful to the trend forecaster.

Some style tropes are accepted as familiar and foundational, such as some underwear or nightwear. Products like these that function more privately are so familiar to your target market that little change is needed for their continued acceptance. Modifications such as a new color or print may be all the change necessary to continue their value in the marketplace.

Familiarity and surprise

The right combination of familiarity and surprise often depends upon who the user is and how familiar a product has become. Though the viewer expects some familiarity in products, the attraction is often to the surprise. To comprehend surprise for the user, the trend forecaster must consider what has come before and what is familiar to the target market. Scarves, for example, have been a familiar accessory used by the mature woman to coordinate and change an ensemble. But the shape and length of a scarf can vary, from a small square to a large rectangle, from a flowing to a stiff fabric, from subtle to brightly colored. These variations affect the wearing, and the shapes and materials used can expand how the scarf can be worn. Wearing a scarf in a new way and modified by size, shape, or patterning can be a surprise that is easily recognized but also accepted as familiar. For many users, such a balance of familiar with new and surprising needs to be considered in the trend story.

Trends can repeat over time. James Laver suggested a period of at least 20 years—the length of time it takes for a trend to pass from the memory of one generation and be perceived as newsworthy and attractive again, this time to another generation (Laver, 1973). Examples include a silhouette, such as the shift silhouette of the dresses of the 1920s repeated in the 1950s, or the length of a necklace, that can be designed to extend over the chest or shortened to adorn a neckline to focus the face and upper body. Such repetition can involve a range from small to full-on changes in product detail or in the product category.

Product categories that change to attract the viewer need the attention of the trend forecaster in telling the trend’s story. What attracts may be color, silhouette, line, or shapes featured on certain areas of the body. Athletic shoes that were once in colors to go unnoticed on the body are produced in bold colors that attract attention and become a source of focus. When one area of the body becomes focus, the ways in which it is coordinated with another product could become worth pursuing as newsworthy. Boldly colored socks, for instance, have retained popularity along with boldly colored athletic shoes. In both cases, the user has the option to focus attention on the feet.

Extending wear from a functional product to a decorative one involves change. Masks, for example, worn as protection during the pandemic, may become newsworthy if wearing is extended beyond the pandemic. The mask that was at first totally functional is now becoming both functional and designed to consider the wearer’s age and occupation. Masks are being designed with patterns or colors to coordinate with the T-shirt or evening dress.

Sometimes the combinations selected by the wearer become newsworthy. For example, suits are familiar as business wear, as a matching jacket and trouser or skirt with coordinating footwear. Increasingly, as values shift, a change occurs, such as athletic shoes worn with the suit as a nod to comfort and the busy life of the wearer. Product coordination is thus viewed differently, even though the athletic shoes may be changed quickly to coordinate with business wear upon arriving at the office.

Recognition of what offers surprise in product categories familiar to the user is useful to note as a trend forecaster. What is changing in the product category must be recognizable to the user and understood in terms of other products in the marketplace. When the product change is trending, store displays often feature the product but newly combined with other products.

Marketplace Categories

Marketplace categories are in constant flux, and how these categories are currently defined is important to note as related to your target market. Product categories can evolve and become so valued that they can change marketplace categories. The term “athleisure,” for instance, is a combination of athletic and leisure created for comfortable clothing that serves multiple functions, from exercise workouts to casual everyday wear for the busy mom or student. Beginning as a popular target for the young and fit, this category has expanded into other markets and is now often worn for traveling comfort.

A product category can be marketed as defining what is formal or casual in the marketplace. Displays using such categories become important to understand, especially in what is selected as an upcoming trend. But the definition of the product category may differ depending upon the user. For many users, a special formal event means that the wearer strives for a coordinated, head-to-toe look, often involving multiple purchases. By contrast, a casual look may be defined as coordinating a group of separates that are put together in a sort of mix-and-match manner. Such marketplace categories may create change in how the target market considers them.

The casual look has been a continuous and evolving trend throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century, and has evolved into fewer categories of dress that are worn strictly as appropriate to the occasion. Blue jeans, for example, were originally worn for physical labor, where priorities included durability and ease of care. Now blue jeans are worn to theater and concerts, and by ages and users in certain situations. Indeed, they have become a ubiquitous staple. But when the product becomes a style trope that has been in the marketplace for an extended time, details begin to count more. In this case, the user finds a need to increase the numbers of blue jeans in the wardrobe, with differences in fit, exact color, or brand logo. And more thought is put into what is worn with the jeans to signify various occasions. For a more formal occasion, they may be worn paired with a velvet jacket and special high-heeled footwear.

Evolving categories in the way products are marketed can influence trend forecasting. For example, the category called athleisure, mentioned earlier, has evolved in the marketplace and has become understood as a style of casual sportswear. Defining a newer category of casual, athleisure is an ever-increasing influence on fashion and trend forecasting. In addition, with more people working from home during and since the pandemic, another potential category is being created. A combination of products to wear to work that have features related to athletics, and sportswear, and comfort, are evolving into a category called athwork, defined as sportswear to wear for both work and workouts.

Product Feature Details

Let’s now consider product features that are trending, with examples such as how colors can become a feature of the trend story. The trend forecaster might feature a color if it is new this season or is featured as the Color of the Year by Pantone, and then consider how the product color might be put together with a familiar one. The way in which the colors are combined becomes the trend story.

As a trend forecaster, how will you select color to present the product features? Think about the details of hue, value, and chroma (HVC). If the color you will feature is middle value and muted in chroma or intensity, it will reveal folds and tucks more readily than either a black or white surface. A fabric of middle value that drapes around the body and forms diagonal tucks at the waist thus creates a subtle accent at mid torso, with the tucks easily viewed because of the middle color value. Such a middle value surface would appear differently if the user decided to select a darker value surface where the silhouette becomes more prominent than the diagonal tucks. These differences in how colors are presented along with the other product features have created the necessity of featuring online products in a variety of colors.

Some new materials are noteworthy for their associations with user values, such as a biodegradable athletic shoe or blue jeans. A user who values the effects of products on the environment could be attracted to an accompanying story about biodegradable products.

The hand and drape of materials can become a feature. For example, a classic shirt could be produced in a transparent black fabric that extends to the floor rather than ending at the hip. The fabric is crisp enough to move with the body but also has a subtle drape that is attractive in the way it encompasses the body. All such details are important for the trend forecaster to attend to in the trend story.

Ground Rules for Observing Trend Patterns

Remember that observing trend patterns in a product relies on first the big picture, on understanding the societal directions occurring in the culture, then on cultivating a deep knowledge of your user and lifestyle and of what constitutes familiarity and surprise for your target market. Lastly, you will need to cultivate an ability to analyze trend patterns in what designer and brand ideas are available that can become fashion for your user—the styles your target market will accept as fashion. Ground rules for observing trend patterns are as follows.

Form and Meaning Relationships

Consider the head-to-toe form as the unit for observation and analysis. Your observation should consider products, how they are put together, and their relationships with the body. Whenever possible, start with observing the head-to-toe entity—all that is placed on and modifying the body surfaces, shapes, lines, and textures. The unit of analysis must include the body, as many dynamite visual relationships can occur when colors are placed adjacent to or in proximity to the skin and hair of the model displaying the product. Finally, consider how form relationships affect the expression and therefore the meaning.

As discussed in Chapter 2, Understanding Your Aesthetic Response, there are different sources of meaning. Here we are first focusing on the meaning that arises from the product itself. For example, the selection of design elements can affect the expressive effect. Color can be bold and cheerful or muted and subdued. The resulting expressive effect is one that arises directly from the product. A simple silhouette with an arrangement of lines that follow that silhouette can be an expression of simplicity and minimalism, easy to observe and read. The message is simple and clear and arises from the design elements selected. Brands are created using such an expressive effect as a tool for recognition of both the products and their marketing.

Figure-Ground Relationships

Consider the figure-to-ground relationship. Figure is what becomes focus for the viewer and ground is what appears behind or surrounding the figure. This relationship is also called positive and negative space. The trend forecaster needs to be aware of both.

This figure-ground relationship influences how the form occupies space. The body and its silhouette related to the surrounding area can appear closed and compact or open to the surround. An example of a closed and compact form is a person in a dark business suit surrounded by a light background. In this instance, the form itself can become figure. The dark value makes features such as the edges of pockets or lapels less noticeable, with the resulting silhouette appearing more definite and closed. The expressive effect is very familiar in the arrangement of the form; we may say that the person “means business.”

With the aid of fabric, the body can also occupy space in a voluminous way and appear more open to the surround. The veil worn as headwear by a bride is often perceived as open to the surround. What could be worn to extend the body both vertically, through a heightened hair shape and high-heeled shoes, and horizontally, through an extension of skirts or trousers? History includes many such examples. Today, a bride may create a flowing movement that extends the space of the body by wearing a dress with a train that drags along the floor and slightly resists forward movement.

Next consider the space occupied within the form. The source of such visual parts perceived as figure includes repeated printed shapes, shapes of pockets and collars, and relationships of the products with the body. A bare midriff or a cutout on the shoulder or thigh, for example, creates a relationship of the product with the body. What becomes focus and how it relates to what appears as ground is a means of creating a relationship with the body. This interactive pattern is used often in the design of swimwear, such as the bikini, where there is an interaction of the two surfaces with the body, of skin to garment. What becomes figure is an interesting exercise in perception of the form.

Consider what becomes figure or focus as you examine the head-to-toe form. Try to always consider the entire head-to-toe unit in your analysis. What does your eye land on, first, second, third? If you first see the head of the wearer, are you then attracted to other parts of the body? How do you take in the entirety? Is there anything in the unit that attracts you to the whole form? What you see first is the focus, but there can be more than one source of focus causing you to move throughout the form. In the case of a dark two-piece suit worn with a light valued shirt and colorful tie, for example, we may focus first upon the head of the wearer, then the tie and shirt that contrasts with the dark suit, and then upon the silhouette of the form.

Shapes printed on the surface or textural patterns are often useful in analyzing the use of figure-ground in determining user preferences. First observe the pattern and whether there are shapes that become figure—a focus for you. Then consider how close the surround appears to be to the shapes that appear as figure. Such print variations may be a trend, including, for instance, whether the figure and ground relate in a similarly shallow space or the figure seems to stand away from the background.

Movement Relationships

Visual movement is defined as an ordered, recurrent alternation of strong and weak elements, called rhythm. When viewing the head-to-toe form, does your eye move throughout the form as you are viewing the whole? If so, identify the relationships that create this visual movement. A gradient of size or density of shape, such as small to large shapes or thin to thick lines, can create movement. Color blocking—defined as creating parts with different colored surfaces—can be repeated within the form, serving as a source of movement. In the process of viewing the form you observe this order and it creates visual direction within the form. Strong and weak elements can be defined by gradations that serve to direct the eye: shape size, pattern density, textural variations. If you perceive such visual movement, you may first ask its source and then its direction: vertical, horizontal, diagonally with the silhouette or diagonally around the body, and so on.

What relationships do you see that help to lead your eye in taking in the form? Is there texture or a surface print that fills the area? For example, a printed pattern may be recognizable—the shape of a flower, an animal skin, a geometric shape like triangle or the circles of polka dots. Ask: what is the function of the pattern? Shapes can become focused parts that lead the eye, and the size relationships play a part in their function. They also help create meaning based upon experience. Polka dots, for example, may be perceived differently depending upon whether they are in fashion, and animal prints recycle often, though the pattern may be modified as leopard, zebra, or snake. Sometimes such patterns appear up-to-date, while at other times they appear to be from a past decade. When recognized as from the past, we may call them retro or vintage to garner meaning, familiarity, and acceptance.

Now consider movement that involves actual body movement: when the body is in motion, does the silhouette of the ensemble stay intact in its definition or does it move against or with the body? Increasingly, the visual effect of actual body movement is being used as a feature in a display. Clicking on an image in an online catalog, for instance, might show the model in motion while wearing the item.

Size Relationships and Proportion

Proportion is about comparative size—what looks appropriate in relation to the visual effect of the whole form. How a part is compared in relation to the whole influences the visual effect. In fashion, the effect of this proportional relationship may change and become a trend pattern to note for your target market. A change in the position of shorter or longer lengths of the sleeve on the arm, for example, may become the trend story for your target market. The category of footwear may become a trend in the way it is proportional to the head-to-toe look. A shoe with a platform will appear heavier in proportion to the rest of the body. For a dark enclosed boot, we may say “that shoe certainly grounds the body,” a popular trend for the Emo or punk look. Or the opposite may occur when a competitive skater wears flesh-colored skates that make the body in movement appear airy and light in proportion.

Proportions also include comparative sizes of shapes that originate from accessories or printed patterns. Surfaces printed with large bold shapes attract more attention than those with small and subtle shapes. Accessories are often selected based upon proportion—for example, a small bag that appears acceptable for a petite body but not for a tall individual. When the fashion is for tiny handbags, how do we speak about proportion for a tall or plus size person? What are the options? That person could choose to adopt the trend for tiny handbags or find something larger that is more in proportion to the body.

Shapes need to be considered as they are proportioned to body shape and size. Notice the proportions of the body related to what is put upon it. A petite-size individual, for example, is one whose body height is under 5 feet 4 inches, and U.S. women’s sizing is designed to accommodate this petite scale with reduced sleeve and torso lengths. But what about the proportion of the pockets and collar—are they also scaled to the petite size? Or, conversely, do we expect the pocket on the jeans of a plus size to be scaled larger? What about the function of the pocket needing to fit the hand, and the decorative stitched applied? These questions are all about size relationships and proportion.

Sensitivity to proportional relationships for your target market is key. Clothing can modify how we view body parts by their size relationship to the whole. Notice fit related to the body as part of any trend, and the proportions your target market is accustomed to. For example, the tailored suit jacket worn by younger age groups may fit more snugly than what is preferred by an older person who wears the jacket fitted in a more familiar, traditional way, with shoulder pads and surfaces fitted to skim over body shapes and appear wrinkle-free. The proportional relationship of the clothing to the body may spell acceptance or rejection for your target market.

Steps in the Organizing Process

As you increase your understanding of what is trending in a particular product category, you will need to assess the relationships of visual parts within the whole unit. How relationships become viewing priorities in the organizing process can be a clue to a trend pattern. These relationships include those within the product, those with other product combinations, and those with the physical characteristics of the person wearing the product.

Relationships involving the product in use are important to feature in product trends. The visual relationships we have just discussed create reasons to focus and scan. Remember from the previous chapter that, as viewers observing a head-to-toe form, we process by focus and scan. We focus upon what attracts our attention—those visual parts of a form, from head to toe, that attract by contrast in shape, line, color, or texture. Scan is about the process of viewing the whole and connecting the foci in viewing. Remember to notice your focus and scan eye movement in taking in the entire form and its relationships.

How we perceive those relationships makes a difference in how they will become accepted. We reviewed the language of color, texture, line, and shape, and how they provide visual definition, in the previous chapter. The idea of relationships within the form must be considered and accepted by the target market to be successful. The ways in which those relationships are recognized as patterns in the viewing process can help tell the story for your target market.

Messaging the Trend Patterns

The trend story with a consistent degree of simplicity and complexity is often a source of user preference. There are brands that depend upon these preferences to attract their user. Eileen Fisher, for example, tends to brand her products with simple shapes and silhouettes in middle value muted and dark value colors, while Ralph Lauren tends toward more visual complexity in his brand and his messaging of Americana. Choosing the trend story is influenced by preferences of your user.

Once you are aware of and understand the influence of the design elements and their relationships, consider how the look featured will affect your target market, and then examine what message can be used to engage your user. How can you use your own responses to understand trend patterns that would appeal to your target market?

What is familiar and new in what you are seeing?  What do you find exciting and new, a surprise that would attract your target market? A new material, a new way of treating the body? Such consideration of what attracts attention need not be revolutionary; it often involves subtle details that are just different from what came before.

What attracts may be a combination of product details that is appealing, a certain relationship that is different for your user. How will your target market accept these new details? Here is where you need to consider the process of analysis to synthesis. For example, in research of the 55+ user population, participants interviewed often expressed the need for actual, not fake, pockets in their trousers. Pockets for women may be an expressed need for a place to put items so they don’t need to carry a handbag. You as a trend forecaster can abstract from the need expressed to possible reasons that would help in the messaging. For example, while your user may not recognize the relationship, this need could point to the Popcorn trend of “eve-olution,” describing women who are asking for equal opportunity and treatment. This response may occur for women because they see the convenience of men’s trousers and jackets that have ample and functional pockets.

Remember that the user in your target market may be aware of a trend pattern if its pointed out, but would otherwise not be conscious of or have words to describe the trend. The notion that a visual picture is worth a thousand words is a consideration here. Often the user recognizes the trend pattern and would select it as up-to-date even though they might not understand or even care about describing the visual relationships involved. But as the trend forecaster, you need to understand these relationships that create the trend pattern and have the language to describe them.

Here is where the trend story becomes important as you select the message appropriate to your target market. By knowing your target market, you will be able to present the story in a way they will accept. How products are presented to the viewer often requires forward thinking. The trend forecaster needs to understand the target market, what is familiar and what is new and could become acceptable to the user. Though your target market may be made up of a variety of users, from innovators to laggards, your user—with the right messaging—may be willing to step away from the familiar and try something new.

How is a Product Marketed as a Trend?

What is trending is often a complete look that involves a head-to-toe coordination of products on the body. David Wolfe, a 20th century trend forecaster working with the Doneger Group, recognized this attraction of selling a complete “look.” His illustrations showed how a product would relate to the look of the form. He illustrated these coordinated looks—that is, the entire unit of analysis. He understood that the purchaser often needed, searched for, and appreciated help in imagining how a product would come across combined with other products as a “look”—a coordinated visual effect.

The forecaster needs to ask what specific elements of the product are trending, and then incorporate this information into the trend story to include that look. For example, what is trending may be a single product that is advertised and sold as a brand with recognizable details. Athletic shoes, for example, are heavily branded for their function and style. Usually they are sold as a single product, but we see them frequently worn by athletes on the golf course, on a running track, or on a friend out for a morning walk. They are combined with the other elements making up the head-to-toe look for the user. In the U.S., products are often marketed together but sold as separates, even those that are coordinated and meant to go together, such as a sweatshirt and sweatpants ensemble. Sometimes this separation in marketing is featured as an accommodation so that the user can purchase a different size top and bottom. But also consider that the purchaser may still be attracted to and want to see the product as an ensemble.

Should a product be marketed by itself or in combination with other products? A product such as an accessory handbag is often featured by itself as well as with other similar handbags, but is also often featured in advertisements as combined in a head-to-toe ensemble, suggesting how it would appear if it were carried by a model. Of course, the model has been selected for being in the right proportion with the product. Regardless of how a product is marketed, a selling point in trends is how the product will look as it relates to other products; the product is thus displayed with other products on the body to create a coordinated “look” that will attract the user.

Product Expectations for your Target Market

Pay attention to what your user pays attention to, and how it contributes to the collective lifestyle of your target market. Importantly, consider the age and activities of the user in your target market. For one user, a product may require change or modification that is not suited to another target market. Modesty may become a factor of age and acceptance. Think about how product characteristics repeat and become new again over time. A pairing of the familiar cardigan with a body-conscious halter helps the cardigan be perceived as new again—and in the process may make attractive to a younger target market. The pendulum swings from one extreme to another, attracting attention before settling into a less extreme form. Products repeat in both foundational and new categories. There may, perhaps, be a move away from woven to knitted shirts and back again.

Which categories of clothing will continue as basics for a target market, and which might be expected to change? For example, the turtleneck cotton shirt that glides over the upper torso with long sleeves and a band at the wrist may be an important style trope and classic for users of a certain age with a range of mobility. Paying attention to the preferred neckline for an older target market or for babies, both with limited mobility, may mean consideration of a neckline that can easily be maneuvered over the head.

What the user in your target market intends for the product involves their expectation for durability in the wearing. Some product categories, such as a wedding dress, are expected to be worn to one event and then stored. A wash-and-wear wedding dress may give a mixed message. Evening gowns designed to be worn and publicly viewed by millions, such as those worn at the Academy Awards ceremony, may be borrowed and returned, as the gown is unlikely to be worn again by that celebrity. In South Korea, renting is an option for wedding attire, and the expectation is for careful reuse. But other products are considered for their long-term durability in wearing. The user would not, for example, expect blue jeans to disintegrate in the first wash. The expectation of a long-term wearing cycle should occur more often when durability is a feature. Patagonia, an outdoor brand, tells their story of durability by offering to repair problems such as a broken zipper or frayed cuff. Other companies that stress environmental concerns offer to recycle by redesigning their products for sale again. This becomes the story for those users who value such practices. What attracts your user may be the message of a long-wearing product or one that can be repaired or recycled.

References

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